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In a letter to his investors in February 2012, John Paulson (the hedge fund manager who became a billionaire as a result of his bet against Lehman Brothers in 2008) wrote that that “the Euro is structurally flawed and will likely unravel”. He predicted that “it seems likely that the pressure to keep the euro together [will] become too great and it [will] ultimately fall apart”.
In contrast, the first draft of this article explained that the prevailing market view was that an exit of a member state from the Euro remained unlikely, notwithstanding the Eurozone’s troubles. This view was premised on the continuation of the significant and unprecedented efforts undertaken by member states thus far to preserve the Eurozone in its current form. However, things have moved on significantly as a result of the recent elections in Greece and a significant restructuring of the Euro looks more likely than ever. To read more, download the attached article.